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| Trimming uncertainty. Results of climate simulations that best match observations since 1960 (those depicted in darker shades of blue) suggest that global average temperature in 2050 will be between 1.4°C and 3°C warmer than the global average measured between 1961 and 1990. Credit: D. J. Rowlands et al., Nature Geoscience, Advanced Online Publication (25 March) |
By 2050, global average temperature could be between 1.4°C and 3°C warmer than it was just a couple of decades ago, according to a new study that seeks to address the largest sources of uncertainty in current climate models. That's substantially higher than estimates produced by other climate analyses, suggesting that Earth's climate could warm much more quickly than previously thought.
Many factors affect global and regional climate, including planet-warming "greenhouse" gases, solar activity, light-scattering atmospheric pollutants, and heat transfer among the land, sea, and air, to name just a few. There are so many influences to consider that it makes determining the effect of any one factor—despite years and sometimes decades of measurements—difficult.
The Internet as we know it: started as a project by the so-called, forewarned "military-industrial-complex" (DARPA). Think of a wagon wheel: most military communications for command, control, communications and countermeasures (C3CM*) had the headquarters element in the center, and/or two hours rear of the "forward edge of the battle area" (FEBA). Hence, we and the Soviets had a "hub-spoke" wagon wheel configuration to our [then] C3CM, thus finding out where ours or the Soviet's HQ was was a matter of espionage; nuking it out of existence presented...problems.
Away with hub-spoke! DARPA's solution was a "spider's web" where destroying one base had nothing to do with your overall communications. There would be an alternate route to get word to your battle field elements; you'd never be "radio silent" i.e. without communication. It started quite humble: big, bulky (and, ugly) Zenith computers on puke-green screens with the equivalent communication of what teens now do with their thumbs almost at a whim - texting. This, along with FORTRAN on key punched, computer index cards that you had to have in the right order, or you'd just be starting over (ugh - you can tell this used to be the source of engineering nightmares), I'm glad it is a part of our distant history.
The first commercial user sold to the public was Netscape as a browser, soon followed by AOL (yes, people still use it), followed by others...
Judging from the commentary at the foot of the article, the science is once again "poo-poohed" by loud opinions to the contrary. That will be picked up and broadcast as the "doubt" as in evolution in the classroom "teaching the controversy."
Senior Master Sergeant Roland S. Wilkins was one of my AFJROTC instructors at North Forsyth High School in Winston-Salem, NC. He was fond of a quote that at the time many of us couldn't quite understand. It's clearer now in the age of the Internet, blogs, tweets and sound bites cum "news":
"We're going to become 'so free,' we're not going to be able to do anything."
* Now: Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence - C4I.
AAAS Science Mag: Earth Warming Faster Than Expected
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