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| Image Source: Technology Review |
Topics: Ebola, Biology, Mathematical Models, R0 ("r naught"), Research, STEM
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
The last, easily remembered and often quoted stanza of T.S. Elliot's poem "The Hollow Men." It bears reading (link provided) in light of current events.
A simple search on this site for Ebola will likely now bring up this article and others written during the faux panic. Due to the "medical expertise" of now infamous anti-vaccination activists (who have been previously mentioned), measles has made a resurgence, and if not shut down, at least exacerbated the profits of the Magic Kingdom.
Presented here is what will likely not make the local or national news with exception of braver souls that take their duty to inform (not entertain) the citizenry seriously over the altar sacrifice to the Moloch of Nielsen:
TECHNOLOGY REVIEW: On March 17, 2014, doctors diagnosed a single case of Ebola in the county of Lofa in Liberia, West Africa. This was the first, patient zero, in an epidemic that has so far infected more than 20,000 people and killed almost 8000.
On August 15, the World Health Organization and other bodies began a major drive in Liberia to halt the epidemic. The strategy has two parts. The first aims to limit the spread of the disease from people who have been infected by ensuring that everyone with symptoms goes to an official treatment center.
The second is to prevent the spread of the disease after death by ensuring that every Ebola victim is buried in a way that prevents further infection. That means wearing protective clothing to place the body in a body bag and then in a coffin before transporting it to a grave. Finally, the aid workers must disinfect the victim’s home and ensure appropriate washing for all those involved in the disposal of the body.
Together, these measures appear to have had a significant effect on the spread of the disease. But an important question remains: when will the epidemic end?
Today, we get an answer thanks to the work of Lucas Valdez from the National University of Mar del Plata in Argentina and a few pals. These guys have created a mathematical model of the way the disease spreads that predicts an end to the epidemic for the first time.
Abstract
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa, causing thousands of deaths. When developing strategies to slow or halt the epidemic, mathematical models that reproduce the spread of this virus are essential for understanding which variables are relevant. We study the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia by using a model in which people travel from one county to another in order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are in good agreement with World Health Organization data. We also find that reducing mobility delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks, and as a consequence, is insufficient to contain the epidemic. Finally we study the effect of a strategy focused on increasing safe burials and hospitalization under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August, which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been reduced by three months and the total number of infected individuals reduced by 80\%, when compared to scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will cease by mid-spring 2015.
Physics arXiv: Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
L. D. Valdez, H. H. A. Rêgo, H. E. Stanley, L. A. Braunstein
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